Anatomy of a nosedive: analyst says U.S. audited circulation decline in 2009 highest in 40 years

Paid and audited circulation of consumer magazines in the U.S. in the first half of 2009 fell by 6.3% or about 17.3 million, the steepest decline in over 40 years, according to an article  by columnist Baird Davis in Audience Development magazine. In the previous 8 years (2000 - 2008) the annual average was only about 1.5%.

Davis said he included in his analysis ABC- and BPA-audited paid/verified consumer publication with more than 5,000 paid circulation. He did not include audited publications that are primarily association titles or  have "paid sponsored" circulation. His view is that combining paid circ magazines with so-called "association publications"  has made it more difficult to understand the circulation dynamics of a rapidly changing industry. Among the things his analysis revealed:

• Newsstand circulation -- which represents less than 15% of total circ -- fell 18.7% or 8.5 million, nearly as much as subscriptions. In the year 2000, newsstands represented 20.7% of circulation; in the first half of 2009, only 14.4%.
• In the first half of 2009, 23 new audited titles were added and 69 were discontinued or ceased being audited. The total number dropped from 545 in first half 2008 to 499 in the same period of 2009. 
• 183 publications decreased circulation by 5% or more; only 41 increased by 5% or more.

There is a growing use of questionable "partnership circulation",  he said, which has now overtaken verified as a circulation source.

"It took a major recession and a dramatic change in the media landscape, but it appears, based on the industry’s current circ decline, that publishers are finally loosening their grip on antiquated advertising-driven circulation philosophies and are being quicker to discontinue unprofitable publications. In the process, the universe of audited consumer paid circulation titles has become much more exclusive."