Canadian Business magazine U.S. commentator says Research in Motion is toast

[This post has been updated]Canadian Business magazine commissioned well-known US commentator Henry Blodget (EIC of Business Insider) to pass judgement on the likely fate of the maker of the BlackBerry and (now) the Playbook, Research in Motion. His verdict (published online by Canadian Business and simultaneously on Business Insider)? RIM is toast.

[Update: This article, which I came across on Business Insider, not Canadian Business, but crediting CB, was part of a broader package about Research in Motion, including (as CB editor Steve Maich points out in his comment) a countervailing view called Long Live Rim by Nick Waddell, the founding editor of the Cantech Letter. Unfortunately, most American investors and many Canadian readers will only see the Blodget article (as I did) and probably be unaware of the editorial package with its alternative perspective, which is too bad for one of the shining stars of Canadian high tech.]

Blodget said he was a 10-year devotee of the BlackBerry, which was rarely more than two feet away from him, 24 hours a day.

By creating the BlackBerry, Research In Motion revolutionized mobile productivity. For nearly a decade, the company easily fended off the competition by providing the best personal-information gadget on the market. It silenced its critics. It reduced Palm, a previous leader in mobile gadgets, to a pile of rubble. And it made its shareholders rich.

But now, Research In Motion’s amazing run appears to be over. The company has lost its lead in the smartphone market, and its market share is falling rapidly. And many long-time addicts like me have switched to iPhones or Android phones.

He cites three reasons for the decline:

1. RIM's products are no longer the best on the market
2. Smartphones have become a "platform market" where apps rule
3. BlackBerry's biggest selling point, security and integration with corporate systems, has been overtaken

"The most likely scenario for RIM is that it becomes Nokia, a company that once dominated the cellphone market but lost several steps and is now scrambling to stay relevant. A worse scenario would be that RIM becomes the next Palm, a one-time leader that falls on its face and is eventually sold for scrap to a larger technology player."