Slower, but steady growth seen in Canadian magazines: PwC

[This post has been updated]
International consultants Pricewaterhousecoopers in their Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2006-2010 say that magazine advertising in Canada is expected to increase 2.9% compounded annually. This it attributes to moderating economic growth that will soften ad demand in both consumer and business magazine sectors and rising postal rates that will continue to adversely affect unit circulation. However, newsstand sales are expected to see modest growth in circulation during 2008 to 2010.

Consumer magazine advertising is projected to reach $733 million in 2010 compared to $622 million in 2005.

Forecast for total magazine advertising (consumer and business):

• 2006 $851 million
  
• 2010 $960 million.

[UPDATE] Magazines Canada has taken a different look at the PwC study and extracted the following facts that reflect somewhat better on consumer magazines than the aggregate numbers do:

• Of the five international regions measured (Canada, U.S., Latin America, Asia Pacific, Europe), Canada's entertainment and media industry was the slowest growing in 2005, up +3.5% versus 2004 (the PWC review includes: magazines; film; TV; recorded music; radio; out-of-home; newspapers; internet; video games; business info; book; publishing; theme/amusement parks; casinos/gaming; sports)
• Major media in Canada (TV, newspaper, magazines, radio, out-of-home) grew advertising revenues by +3.4% in 2005
• Canadian consumer magazine advertising revenue grew +3.6% in 2005, in advance of total major media
• Canadian business (trade) magazines grew +1.6% in 2005 a significant turn around, having experienced declines in prior years
• The Canadian economy (GDP) is expected to moderate during 2006-2010 to levels below all other regions with the exception of Europe, at a +4.3% compound annual growth rate
• It is projected that Canadian consumer magazine advertising revenues will continue to grow +3.3% (compound annual increase) through to 2010. This performance compares with television (+3.8%), newspapers (+2.5%), OOH (+6.6%) and radio (+4.7%)
• 82 Canadian magazines launched in 2005, 67 of which (82%) were consumer magazines. 2005 generated the second highest number of consumer launches in the last 6 years and the third highest in the last nine years
• PWC points to Canada Post rate increases as a key factor in circulation declines: PAP declines and postal rate increases going forward will result in increased distribution costs, higher subscription rates and will, therefore, moderate sales in the short- to mid-term