Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Canadian Dimension article ruminates about running on empty

Canadian Dimension has recently been getting more notice outside its small circulation circle. For instance, there was an excellent package on the crisis in Canadian universities (nominated for a National Magazine Award). And now an environmental blog, Gristmill, points to an article in the July/August issue about the concept of "peak oil". (As we understand it, this posits that the world is on the cusp of a momentous change, when the amount of oil being found and available worldwide begins to be less than the amount of oil being consumed, with shortfalls becoming "relentless and cumulative".) Author Richard Heinberg drills deep into the issue, describing its possible economic fallout and the possible solutions.

Comparably interesting are the comments on Gristmill about the CD story, or the whole idea of "peak oil". For instance, one writer said : " Asking an economist about peak oil is like asking Stevie Wonder to critique your latest painting." Another said: "We are not using fossil fuels faster than they can be produced; fossil fuels are not produced by man at all--they are extracted, and they are extracted at, for all intents and purposes, exactly the rate at which they are used. But we have long since begun using more than we discover, and therein lies the tale."

(By the way, while at first I hated the redesign with its retro logo, the whole thing has begun to grow on me.)

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some clarification...
'(As we understand it, this posits that the world is on the cusp of a momentous change, when the amount of oil being found and available worldwide begins to be less than the amount of oil being consumed, with shortfalls becoming "relentless and cumulative".)'
Momentous change, yes. You have actually combined two separate critical aspects of peak oil in one. One: the amount of oil being found is less than the amount being consumed. It is well documented that oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s and that we currently consume about 4 barrels of oil for every 1 new barrel discovered. That points to a long term problem.
The more immediate problem is that as oil fields age, the amount that can be extracted per day reaches a peak and then declines. (That is what peak oil refers to - the peak daily production from any oil field, nation, or the world in total.) U.S. oil production peaked in the 1970s (Canada's conventional oil soon after) which is why the U.S. is so dependent on foreign oil.
Those who have studied peak oil conclude that we are at or very near the world peak. Once the world peak is reached, no amount of effort can increase daily production from conventional wells. Hence all the interest in oil sands, deep offshore etc. But these are much more expensive to produce, and will not fill the gap as more and more conventional oil fields decline.
So get ready for even higher gas prices, and if you want an indication of just what people will pay, check out www.EnergyPredicament.com.
Randy Park

3:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh. I thought Peak Oil referred to the point at which it takes more than a barrel of oil's worth of energy to extract, refine and deliver a barrel of oil. Turns out I'm wrong, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil -- that's another phenomenon called "an EROEI near or below 1.0". At least that hasn't happened yet. Back into your SUVs, everyone. (I'll stick with my trusty bicycle.)

7:37 pm  

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