"Cycles, trends and wobbles" in the magazine business

Guardian columnist Jim Bilton observes that the underlying fundamentals of the magazine industry -- particularly circulation pricing -- is part of a complex mix :

• Cycles are relatively easy to spot, as they keep on recurring. Since the late 80s, the industry has seen two launch booms, the last one in 2003-05. In 2006, the number and size of launches fell dramatically and they have continued to drop ever since - the market appears to have lost much of its creative "fizz". Past experience suggests it will return eventually.
• Trends -- long-term and irreversible changes in the structure of the industry - are less simple to identify. The shift from big-circulation, mass-market magazines to niche titles is a clear trend, as is the move from print to digital - although its speed and scale are sometimes exaggerated.
• Wobbles are the really perplexing events. They can still be major and market-changing, but they are largely unpredictable and potentially reversible.